Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

General Transport Discussion not specific to one state
Merc1107
Posts: 802
Joined: Sat Jul 07, 2012 6:38 pm
Favourite Vehicle: High Floor Buses
Location: Perth

Re: Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

Post by Merc1107 »

eddy wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:58 am Two---- Make the A$ competitive again.
If you increase the supply of money, there are more dollars chasing the finite goods in the world. The price someone is willing to pay increases, therefore prices rise (inflation). Some foolish dictators have tried printing money to buy their way out of trouble; I think it is Zimbabwe that has (or had) billion dollar bank notes as a result of the hyperinflation their foolish monetary policy created.

If you then try and flood the foreign exchange market with more dollars (i.e. an increase in supply), the value of the Australian dollar in an equilibrium situation decreases. Consider then the implications on demand for the AUD; foreign currency speculators, overseas investors and so on would have great cause for concern over mass printing of money (will the economy be stable in the mid-long run? Will investments be secure? Will we get our money back?), will exit the market, thus causing a contraction in demand. So not only has an increase in currency supply diminished the value of the AUD, but as foreign demand for the dollar diminishes, the equilibrium price for the AUD further reduces, and the quantity of AUD traded reduces.

There are a couple of results from this:
- Australians purchasing imports: As Australia is a net importer (as demonstrated by Australia traditionally having a Current Account Deficit), our purchasing power of imports diminishes. Therefore, printing money to finance the Maglev, for example, could result in costs being higher than anticipated. Printing more money to make up for the decreases value of the AUD would make the issue worse. The same goes for the many other goods we import to function in day-to-day life - these would become far more expensive for the consumer. This creates its own problems.
- Australian exporters: If the value of the AUD is low relative to other economies, our exports become more competitive. Notice in the last 10-15yrs, the rising value of the AUD coincided with some of our export industries (i.e. car manufacturing) closing down?

Australia's currency is well-known to be a 'commodity currency.' When the value of our principal exports increases, so too does the demand for AUD. This was particularly true during the mining boom, where there was a time lag between the onset of tremendous demand for iron ore (and other commodities) and when it could actually be supplied. Once the supply was made available as mines entered their production phases, prices rapidly dropped, and so too did the AUD.

At present, there is concern that renewed demand for commodities could push the AUD too high again. The trouble is, there is a fine line we have to walk here. A highly valued AUD is great for us as net importers of goods (at present this is not the case), but detrimental if there are blossoming industries that could be quite valuable as exports.
User avatar
eddy
Posts: 2629
Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:18 am
Contact:

Re: Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

Post by eddy »

Merc1107 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:22 pm
eddy wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:58 am Two---- Make the A$ competitive again.
If you increase the supply of money, there are more dollars chasing the finite goods in the world. The price someone is willing to pay increases, therefore prices rise (inflation). Some foolish dictators have tried printing money to buy their way out of trouble; I think it is Zimbabwe that has (or had) billion dollar bank notes as a result of the hyperinflation their foolish monetary policy created.

If you then try and flood the foreign exchange market with more dollars (i.e. an increase in supply), the value of the Australian dollar in an equilibrium situation decreases. Consider then the implications on demand for the AUD; foreign currency speculators, overseas investors and so on would have great cause for concern over mass printing of money (will the economy be stable in the mid-long run? Will investments be secure? Will we get our money back?), will exit the market, thus causing a contraction in demand. So not only has an increase in currency supply diminished the value of the AUD, but as foreign demand for the dollar diminishes, the equilibrium price for the AUD further reduces, and the quantity of AUD traded reduces.

There are a couple of results from this:
- Australians purchasing imports: As Australia is a net importer (as demonstrated by Australia traditionally having a Current Account Deficit), our purchasing power of imports diminishes. Therefore, printing money to finance the Maglev, for example, could result in costs being higher than anticipated. Printing more money to make up for the decreases value of the AUD would make the issue worse. The same goes for the many other goods we import to function in day-to-day life - these would become far more expensive for the consumer. This creates its own problems.
- Australian exporters: If the value of the AUD is low relative to other economies, our exports become more competitive. Notice in the last 10-15yrs, the rising value of the AUD coincided with some of our export industries (i.e. car manufacturing) closing down?

Australia's currency is well-known to be a 'commodity currency.' When the value of our principal exports increases, so too does the demand for AUD. This was particularly true during the mining boom, where there was a time lag between the onset of tremendous demand for iron ore (and other commodities) and when it could actually be supplied. Once the supply was made available as mines entered their production phases, prices rapidly dropped, and so too did the AUD.

At present, there is concern that renewed demand for commodities could push the AUD too high again. The trouble is, there is a fine line we have to walk here. A highly valued AUD is great for us as net importers of goods (at present this is not the case), but detrimental if there are blossoming industries that could be quite valuable as exports.
True it is not what you do but how you do it.
I am a firm believer in supply and demand and as long as the two balance then there is no problem.
We just printed $100b https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/why- ... 103-p56azw and are prepared to print more and all I suggest is it is better to spend $20b to connect Parrahub/Canberra airport than it is to pay unemployed miners to sit at home and lose their skills.
Printing A$100b only reduces our dollar a few cents and with trade tensions Australia/China, ordering 20 TBM off them now may see our exports to them quietly return.
Every time America prints more our dollar rises and even now is uncompetitive.
Parrahub, an extra option in the public transport menu https://3dwarehouse.sketchup.com/model/ ... rahub-2016
User avatar
Fleet Lists
Administrator
Posts: 21734
Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 12:49 pm
Location: The Shire

Re: Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

Post by Fleet Lists »

In the case of your proposal it may be a case of a lot of supply but little if no demand. So certainly no balance if that is the case.
Living in the Shire.
User avatar
eddy
Posts: 2629
Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:18 am
Contact:

Re: Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

Post by eddy »

Fleet Lists wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:10 pm In the case of your proposal it may be a case of a lot of supply but little if no demand. So certainly no balance if that is the case.
In this 1997 study they anticipate 3.4m journeys per year and it would cost up to $2.6b https://www.aph.gov.au/sitecore/content ... 97/97cib17

As things are ten times more expensive now, I think $20b is very reasonable with maybe twice the anticipated journeys e.g., 6.8 million journeys @ $100 = $680m/pa gross which would easily cover the running cost.
Parrahub, an extra option in the public transport menu https://3dwarehouse.sketchup.com/model/ ... rahub-2016
User avatar
Fleet Lists
Administrator
Posts: 21734
Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 12:49 pm
Location: The Shire

Re: Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

Post by Fleet Lists »

Up to 2.6billion???? You must be joking The Berlin proposal for Magliv in 1997 was 4.6 billion plus 2.6 billion = 7.2 billion for 283 km which would translate to close to 20 billion for Sydney to Melbourne. So if your estimate of 10 times since then would be about 200 billion today.
Living in the Shire.
User avatar
eddy
Posts: 2629
Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:18 am
Contact:

Re: Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

Post by eddy »

Fleet Lists wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:12 pm Up to 2.6billion???? You must be joking The Berlin proposal for Magliv in 1997 was 4.6 billion plus 2.6 billion = 7.2 billion for 283 km which would translate to close to 20 billion for Sydney to Melbourne. So if your estimate of 10 times since then would be about 200 billion today.
The Speedrail 1967 proposal was only for a conventional fast rail train from Sydney to Canberra the same as I suggest with a single tunnel Maglev https://www.aph.gov.au/sitecore/content ... 97/97cib17

This similar hardrock TBM did 10 kilometres in 5 years and I would expect with 20 teams operating simultaneously they would learn off and compete with other so it would be running within 5 years for $20b https://www.therobbinscompany.com/proje ... l-project/
Last edited by eddy on Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Parrahub, an extra option in the public transport menu https://3dwarehouse.sketchup.com/model/ ... rahub-2016
Linto63
Posts: 1287
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:44 pm

Re: Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

Post by Linto63 »

This report states that the Chinese were trying to get costs down to USD 25 million (AUD 32 million) per kilometre. So over 880 km from Sydney to Melbourne, that would be over AUD 28 billion, and with us having a mush higher labour cost, would be well in excess of that.

But then you are proposing tunnelling throughout. The largely tunnelled 285km Chūō Shinkansen MLX maglev in Japan is expected to cost USD 82 billion, or AUD 370 million per km to build, a total of AUD 324 billion for Sydney to Melbourne. Whichever way you look at it, the numbers just don't stack up.
User avatar
Fleet Lists
Administrator
Posts: 21734
Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 12:49 pm
Location: The Shire

Re: Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

Post by Fleet Lists »

Very true.
Living in the Shire.
User avatar
eddy
Posts: 2629
Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:18 am
Contact:

Re: Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

Post by eddy »

Linto63 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:16 pm This report states that the Chinese were trying to get costs down to USD 25 million (AUD 32 million) per kilometre. So over 880 km from Sydney to Melbourne, that would be over AUD 28 billion, and with us having a mush higher labour cost, would be well in excess of that.

But then you are proposing tunnelling throughout. The largely tunnelled 285km Chūō Shinkansen MLX maglev in Japan is expected to cost USD 82 billion, or AUD 370 million per km to build, a total of AUD 324 billion for Sydney to Melbourne. Whichever way you look at it, the numbers just don't stack up.
Perhaps that is an old link because I cannot imagine them extending German complicated Maglev 400 kilometres especially as they are now talking about using a Japanese type Maglev with more clearance and if they use pressure reduced single tunnels, they will do 1,000km/h https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Tpxh5COfpY

I also would like to point out that where the Japanese uses NATM https://scmaglev.jr-central-global.com/status/mountain/ which is far slower than a TBM and in my opinion doesn’t provide as much resistance to floor heave it also makes the cross section smaller increasing the running cost of atmospheric Maglev.

I would like to find how much the track alone costs as neither the Japanese or new Chinese one looks to be too expensive.
Parrahub, an extra option in the public transport menu https://3dwarehouse.sketchup.com/model/ ... rahub-2016
User avatar
eddy
Posts: 2629
Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:18 am
Contact:

Re: Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

Post by eddy »

TBM operations in difficult ground

The lecture is to be broadcasted live on YouTube on Thursday 21 January 2021 at 18:00 hrs GMT/UTC and will include an online Q&A session.

https://www.tunneltalk.com/Conferences- ... ecture.php
Parrahub, an extra option in the public transport menu https://3dwarehouse.sketchup.com/model/ ... rahub-2016
User avatar
eddy
Posts: 2629
Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:18 am
Contact:

Re: Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

Post by eddy »

Linto63 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:16 pm This report states that the Chinese were trying to get costs down to USD 25 million (AUD 32 million) per kilometre. So over 880 km from Sydney to Melbourne, that would be over AUD 28 billion, and with us having a mush higher labour cost, would be well in excess of that.

But then you are proposing tunnelling throughout. The largely tunnelled 285km Chūō Shinkansen MLX maglev in Japan is expected to cost USD 82 billion, or AUD 370 million per km to build, a total of AUD 324 billion for Sydney to Melbourne. Whichever way you look at it, the numbers just don't stack up.
Definitely not the German Maglev https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knN8uELZ-Rk
Parrahub, an extra option in the public transport menu https://3dwarehouse.sketchup.com/model/ ... rahub-2016
User avatar
eddy
Posts: 2629
Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:18 am
Contact:

Re: Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

Post by eddy »

Terrible video but it gives a good view of the track https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLvOlOqs7Sw

Although it has a higher temperature superconductor it only elevates 1mm (1 .20) which I believe is insufficient and is not proven like the Japanese Maglev.
Parrahub, an extra option in the public transport menu https://3dwarehouse.sketchup.com/model/ ... rahub-2016
User avatar
eddy
Posts: 2629
Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:18 am
Contact:

Re: Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

Post by eddy »

At 13 minutes they claim 1,000 km/h in a pressure reduced single tunnel such as I suggest once the public realise it is just as safe as a plane but I think it is too complicated with only 1cm clearance as then you need all the computers as the track would never stay that straight https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-bnFt6r-as&t=54s

The Japanese one is proven and off the shelf with 10cm clearence. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zv_7wmctKOs
Parrahub, an extra option in the public transport menu https://3dwarehouse.sketchup.com/model/ ... rahub-2016
User avatar
eddy
Posts: 2629
Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:18 am
Contact:

Re: Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

Post by eddy »

Got this email from the International Maglev Board today https://northeastmaglev.com/?idU=2
Parrahub, an extra option in the public transport menu https://3dwarehouse.sketchup.com/model/ ... rahub-2016
User avatar
eddy
Posts: 2629
Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:18 am
Contact:

Re: Sydney to Melbourne Maglev via Canberra

Post by eddy »

Merc1107 wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:22 pm
eddy wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:58 am Two---- Make the A$ competitive again.


At present, there is concern that renewed demand for commodities could push the AUD too high again. The trouble is, there is a fine line we have to walk here. A highly valued AUD is great for us as net importers of goods (at present this is not the case), but detrimental if there are blossoming industries that could be quite valuable as exports.
As America is using their dollar as a weapon sometimes China is trying to do deals in Yuan https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN22O0LZ and https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/ch ... different/

With Brazil having ships that are twice as big to fit in any Australian port and doing iron ore deals in Yuan we may find we have real competition once they get over their problems with the dam and COVID-19
Parrahub, an extra option in the public transport menu https://3dwarehouse.sketchup.com/model/ ... rahub-2016
Post Reply

Return to “General Transport Discussion”