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Bondi Beach bus patronage

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Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby tonyp » Sun Dec 31, 2017 7:03 am

I'm wondering - since TfNSW won't provide individual route figures - does anybody have any idea of what is the annual patronage of 380, assuming that's the busiest single route serving Bondi Beach from the city? And what is the figure for 333 on top of that (or even the two routes combined if there aren't separate figures?).

I take it that 333 is basically a limited stops version of 380, nothing else.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby burrumbus » Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:42 am

333 and 380 should be considered as the one route in my book.They do the same thing after all.333 just being a limited stops version.I haven't got figures ,but a guesstimate would be in the range 5-6 miilion per annum.I'd reckon it would be the busiest in NSW ,then the Gong Shuttle,then the 400.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby tonyp » Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:13 am

burrumbus wrote:333 and 380 should be considered as the one route in my book.They do the same thing after all.333 just being a limited stops version.I haven't got figures ,but a guesstimate would be in the range 5-6 miilion per annum.I'd reckon it would be the busiest in NSW ,then the Gong Shuttle,then the 400.

The only recent figures given out by TfNSW rated the Gong Shuttle and the 400 as the busiest single routes in NSW, in that order, and we've learned since then that the Gong Shuttle is 3.3 million ppa, so the 400 must be slightly below that. However, like you, I'd combine the 380 and 333 because they're the same route. Back in DGT days they would have had the same route number with one being identified as limited stops. So, given that either one of them must have patronage below that of 55 and 400, according to TfNSW, the question is what is the patronage of both 380 and 333 combined? Does anybody who uses them regularly have a view on the relative loads carried by the two?

The only other clue I have to go by - that delivers much higher figures - is a paper by STA at one of the "Thredbo" conferences back in 2006 when the 333 was newly-launched:

http://www.thredbo-conference-series.or ... Rookes.pdf

In that paper they give a six-month patronage figure for 2006/7 financial year that unfortunately also includes 381, 382 and X84 thrown in (how much of the load do these three routes account for?). This is 4.9 million passengers for six months for the five routes on the corridor, which we could rough out at 10 million ppa. I think the overall route Circular Quay to North Bondi is 10 km, which then roughs out at 1 million passengers per route km per annum. This places it up with the Australia's busiest tram routes in Melbourne like the 96.

A couple of questions now open up. One would be how much patronage growth would there be on this quite fully-developed corridor (that is, presuming there has not been, or would not be in the future a great long-term upsurge in population or visitation along the corridor)? The other question is how we break off the patronage figure for the 381, 382, X84 from that (assumed) 10 million ppa to arrive at a figure for 380/333? Your figure of 5-6 million ppa could at a wild guess be near the mark.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby boronia » Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:05 am

X84 is a completely different route to the others, and with only 3 inbound services per weekday, is hardly worth considering in the mix.

Back in the DGT days there was also the 381 running full time from Central, and also the 388 which was a full time version of the current X84.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby tonyp » Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:16 am

That leaves the question of how much of the work 381 and 382 contribute to.

I'm discovering in the course of this exercise the downside of TfNSW's new information regime! Once you could get a hard copy (or pdf of the hard copy) timetable that showed all the routes together. Now the pdf version that comes off their site only has specific route timetables, so you have to look at, for example, the 380 and 333 separately instead of having them conveniently blended in one timetable. How useful is that?

Of course the answer is supposed to be that you use the journey planner, tracker apps etc. Sometimes progress goes backwards. Perhaps it's time to take a leaf out of the DGT book and revert the 333 to being part of 380 (limited stops) so they'd be back in the same timetable.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby boronia » Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:25 am

The other answer to that is you can just "turn up and wait".

Pre 333, it was L82
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby Tonymercury » Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:15 am

tonyp wrote: Now the pdf version that comes off their site only has specific route timetables, so you have to look at, for example, the 380 and 333 separately instead of having them conveniently blended in one timetable. How useful is that?


Don't you know that several Ministers and TfNSW have told us many time that passenger information has been vastly improved. I would suspect that the particular speechwriter gained early experience by telling many people how Musso had made the trains run on time.

Another pertinent bit of information would be the number of BJ to CBD rail passengers.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby tonyp » Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:39 am

In the report on light rail commissioned by Waverley Council a couple of years back, they elicited a comment by STA that it had put a ceiling on capacity on this corridor because they simply couldn't provide any more services. So I guess we can't anticipate much further growth in the near future. They shouldn't have got rid of the trams should they?

I haven't seen a figure for how many passengers the Bondi Rd trams carried. The Watsons Bay line maxed at about 20 million ppa, the busiest lines in Melbourne are currently at about 12 or so million ppa, so between these figures, one might form an idea.

This exercise would be so much easier if TfNSW simply released detailed statistics like PTV does. :roll: There needs to be a Wollongong-style political crisis that prompts some politician to blurt out figures. Can ATDB release some fake news that the Bondi Beach services are to be withdrawn? :idea:
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby Linto63 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:44 am

Routes 333 and 380 are for all intents and purposes exactly the same except every other 380 continues beyond Bondi Beach to Watsons Bay.

According to this August 2016 article http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/opal-data-giv ... qzzd6.html route 400 was averaging 16,000 per weekday so with 250 weekdays per annum works out at 4 millon. Would be lighter loads during holiday periods, but this would be easily surpassed when weekend journeys are added.

tonyp wrote:This exercise would be so much easier if TfNSW simply released detailed statistics like PTV does.
They have probably worked out it is of little or no interest to most people and avoids them being bombarded endlessly by timetable cranks or would be transport planners. :D
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby boronia » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:14 pm

Part of the patronage on the 333/380 would be from around the Paddington area, where the services are intermixed with 440 and m40 along Oxford St.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby tonyp » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:17 pm

Linto63 wrote:According to this August 2016 article http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/opal-data-giv ... qzzd6.html route 400 was averaging 16,000 per weekday so with 250 weekdays per annum works out at 4 millon. Would be lighter loads during holiday periods, but this would be easily surpassed when weekend journeys are added.
They have probably worked out it is of little or no interest to most people and avoids them being bombarded endlessly by timetable cranks or would be transport planners. :D

That SMH reference, which I know about, is the only snippet of information we have to go by. If TfNSW released such information like Victoria, SA. Queensland and WA do, then they would doubtless avoid being pestered by enquiries - most of which would come from real transport planners. Everything from NSW is secretive and spin-laden.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby burrumbus » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:57 pm

Thanks for the Thredbo paper Tony.Interesting reading.I think we need to include the 381/382 AND X84 in the exercise as well .The 382 and X84 are peak only but would generate probably 40 PAX per trip average so around 600 per day.The sections beyond North Bondi are relatively quiet ,from observations and riding (but not for a while)and probably average around 10 per trip beyond North Bondi.
The 381 is virtually a full time route with the deviation via Fletcher and Denham Streets.That deviation from riding it picks up good loadings,but it would average around 35-40 pax over the day.People do congregate to the main services -380/333,in the same way on Parramatta Road they go for the 438.-Which is the busiest route there.
The Threbo paper gave patronage of over 4.9 million for 6 months-so 10 million for the year.With the mix of the 5 routes,over the whole corridor from Circ Quay to Watsons Bay I'd reckon 10.5 million per annum.(Educated guess)
But you need to separate the patronage from Circ Quay to BJI to try to work out the patronage from BJI to North Bondi.This is complicated by the 440 and M40 running over the City-BJI section.From riding, the patronage from Circ Quay to BJI can turnover over twice at busy times,picking up in the city ,Taylor Square dropping and picking up up to another busload for BJI and beyond.The patronage from BJI to North Bondi can also turnover as well,but probably not to the extent of 2 bus loads.1.3 busloads roughly.The BJI-North Bondi section certaintly carries a lot more pax than the Circ Quay-BJI section(333/380),but as Boronia pointed out a lot of pax jump the train to BJI and connect the bus.This is reflected in the sheer numbers of trips on the BJI-North Bondi section.Hard to say but maybe be in the order of a 40/60 split between Circ Quay-BJI and BJI-North Bondi.6.3 million pax per year.
Tony's comment on STA putting a cap on capacity on capacity on the route shows one of the prime reasons why STA will lose region 6.Poor utilisation and productivity.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby boronia » Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:55 pm

But TfNSW would be complicit in setting service levels, so who is setting the limits?
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby burrumbus » Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:28 pm

Presumably STA told TFNSW they couldn't add more services,Boronia.There is some operator input on the contracts.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby Tonymercury » Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:34 pm

burrumbus wrote:Presumably STA told TFNSW they couldn't add more services,Boronia.There is some operator input on the contracts.


There was a report earlier this year saying that there was no more capacity at BJ interchange.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newsl ... f8981639dc

And not really relevantm but lots of interesting bits -
https://www.woollahra.nsw.gov.au/__data ... y_2008.pdf
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby simonl » Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:31 pm

^ But we can't have all door boarding because it would be "unsafe", eh!
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby burrumbus » Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:10 pm

Tonymercury wrote:
burrumbus wrote:Presumably STA told TFNSW they couldn't add more services,Boronia.There is some operator input on the contracts.


There was a report earlier this year saying that there was no more capacity at BJ interchange.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newsl ... f8981639dc

And not really relevantm but lots of interesting bits -
https://www.woollahra.nsw.gov.au/__data ... y_2008.pdf

Thanks for the extra info Tony.All very interesting.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby tonyp » Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:35 am

Another issue would be the availability of funding for extra services.

What proportion of services on 380/333 are now run by artics?
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby boronia » Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:58 am

In theory the 333 is 100% artic. Not sure about 380, but I can't recall ever seeing any, unless they run only from BJI.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby tonyp » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:01 am

boronia wrote:In theory the 333 is 100% artic. Not sure about 380, but I can't recall ever seeing any, unless they run only from BJI.

To increase capacity then they need to make both routes all-artic (the routes that start at BJ are probably fine as 12 metres I guess), clear the parking off Bondi Rd 18 hours a day and make some bus priority. All-door loading is necessary but it's NSW of course. Then (apart from the loading problem) they would have a service at least matching the single tramcars that formerly ran down the corridor - but short of the additional capacity of the double-car sets.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby Linto63 » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:53 am

Bendys can't negotiate the tight North Bondi - South Head Cemetery section, so not possible on the 380. Another constraining factor is that there is a limit to the number of buses that can be stabled at Waverley depot.

With the 333, 380, 381, 382, 389 and at busy times X81, there are oodles of buses between BJ and the beach. Sure it gets busy at times, notably summer Sundays, but the supply more or less matches the demand. Don't particularly see the need to try and match the patronage levels achieved by a tram line that closed nearly 60 years ago when the demographics were very different.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby tonyp » Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:55 am

During the last decade of the trams, Waverley LGA had a population of about 21,000 and pretty steady not far above that for a couple of decades afterwards - and it was already the most densely-settled area in Australia by then. Now the population is 72,000 with a bit of a levelling-off projected over the next couple of decades to about 80,000. It's not a question of buses not having to match the patronage levels of the trams. The question is that they need to perform a substantially greater task than the trams, in spite of being hamstrung by being buses, not trams.

This would require nothing less than a full service by artics. I think they should combine 380 and 333 (and even 381, 382 as short-workings) into one service (with the ex 333 being limited stops) and have interchange at North Bondi to 12 metre buses on an independent run for the South Head section. A core service with connections, like GCLR, CSELR, the proposal for the Brisbane busways, rather than trying to run buses through to other destinations.

The various reports keep saying that rail to Bondi Beach is not justified in the cost-benefit calculation, which may be true but it's frustrating. Ideally, if it were not for this, there should be rail to the beach with no intermediate stops after BJ, with buses filling in the detail along the parallel surface route. Then it would be manageable. The push for reinstating trams has stalled on the ridiculous road-space requirements (and general reluctance to confront autopia) by TfNSW and RMS. So it's now between a rock and hard place, with the only way to go being the largest possible, most efficiently-operated buses with the maximum road priority possible.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby boronia » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:20 am

Linto63 wrote:Bendys can't negotiate the tight North Bondi - South Head Cemetery section, so not possible on the 380. Another constraining factor is that there is a limit to the number of buses that can be stabled at Waverley depot.

With the 333, 380, 381, 382, 389 and at busy times X81, there are oodles of buses between BJ and the beach. Sure it gets busy at times, notably summer Sundays, but the supply more or less matches the demand. Don't particularly see the need to try and match the patronage levels achieved by a tram line that closed nearly 60 years ago when the demographics were very different.


The 389, (well 379, now) doesn't go to the beach, and its roundabout route probably takes it off the radar for most beach goers.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby Linto63 » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:45 am

tonyp wrote:I think they should combine 380 and 333 (and even 381, 382 as short-workings) into one service (with the ex 333 being limited stops) and have interchange at North Bondi to 12 metre buses on an independent run for the South Head section. A core service with connections, like GCLR, CSELR, the proposal for the Brisbane busways, rather than trying to run buses through to other destinations.
We can endlessly play fantasy route planner, combine this route, split that route etc and come up with pros and cons for each. But in the grand scheme of what is wrong with Sydney's roads and transport, the Bondi Beach corridor is small beer and compared to a lot of other areas, is quite well served by public transport. From my observations there is not a chronic undersupply that needs addressing.

boronia wrote:The 389, (well 379, now) doesn't go to the beach, and its roundabout route probably takes it off the radar for most beach goers.
Terminates at North Bondi, so only 2 stops (about 300 metres) from the centre of the beach, but yes forgot that it does go round the houses a bit.
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Re: Bondi Beach bus patronage

Postby boronia » Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:03 pm

It is close to the beach, but I wonder how many people coming from the beach to catch a bus to BJI/city would think/know to walk up the hill to catch an alternative service?
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