Patronage predictions and panic

Sydney / New South Wales Transport Discussion
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by Fleet Lists »

Probably used on trips shorter that 10KM. Not really suitable for our environment.
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Linto63
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by Linto63 »

tonyp wrote:And what if the complaints aren't endless or even at all?
In the parallel universe you live in they may just cop it sweet, but in the one the rest of use reside in, it will kick off deluxe.
tonyp wrote:From which fairy tale does that come? Have you ever lived in one of those other countries to experience what it's like on a day to day basis?
Extensively, best past of a decade in Hong Kong, Singapore, London and New York. So I think I am reasonably well placed to comment, having spent extended periods of time at the coal face rather than just looking at them through rose tinted glasses.

There is sometimes a perception from Australia that these systems are brilliant and without fault. Yes they do move huge numbers of people, but they do have their shortcomings. And these cities certainly don't have the 2.2 cars per household like we do, so it's public transport, cycle or foot.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by grog »

I think you will be surprised. They are getting as many seats per hour on opening as if they had 6tph DD - that's not a small amount. Better than the upper and lower Northern line get. Better than the Richmond line gets. Not far off what the most frequent stopping patterns elsewhere receive.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by mandonov »

I'll just be happy to be able to get on a train from Mac Uni to Epping in the PM peak without having to yell at people to go up/down stairs.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by Swift »

Good to hear Mac uni students showing their usual common sense these days. :roll:
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by simonl »

grog wrote:I think you will be surprised. They are getting as many seats per hour on opening as if they had 6tph DD - that's not a small amount. Better than the upper and lower Northern line get. Better than the Richmond line gets. Not far off what the most frequent stopping patterns elsewhere receive.
Quite, and the demand is not that high. Perhaps demand will increase significantly - meaning more people living in the hills and working in the city/lower shore. Not a positive outcome.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by tonyp »

grog wrote:I think you will be surprised. They are getting as many seats per hour on opening as if they had 6tph DD - that's not a small amount. Better than the upper and lower Northern line get. Better than the Richmond line gets. Not far off what the most frequent stopping patterns elsewhere receive.
So the same number of seats, faster service and more frequent service. And yet transport enthusiasts are critical of the metro replacing double deckers. :? Let's wait till the actual users speak after 2019.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by tonyp »

Linto63 wrote:Extensively, best past of a decade in Hong Kong, Singapore, London and New York. So I think I am reasonably well placed to comment, having spent extended periods of time at the coal face rather than just looking at them through rose tinted glasses.

There is sometimes a perception from Australia that these systems are brilliant and without fault. Yes they do move huge numbers of people, but they do have their shortcomings. And these cities certainly don't have the 2.2 cars per household like we do, so it's public transport, cycle or foot.
For me, London, Amsterdam, Prague and Plzen, so I know the field too. European cities are missing from your catalogue which distorts the view - Europeans have more in common with how we live than Asian examples. Yes Asians do have the conditions you describe but that's not relevant for Australians. The European experience is more relevant to our lifestyle and that's not this:
Passengers in other countries probably just cop it, because it has been that way for all of their lives and with car ownership only for the very well off, there has never been an alternative. And it's not just their public transport where they are rammed in like sardines, that's how they live too.
While Australians might own cars at the rate of about 700 per thousand people, Europeans nowadays own then at typically between 500 and 600 per thousand, not that far behind. But they're more likely to leave them parked at home during the week and use public transport. The reason they use public transport is not because they don't own cars, it's because they find it more practical, more convenient and often faster.

This piece demonstrates the irrationality of Australians in clinging to driving the car, but at least in this case faster, single-deck, metro-style trains (plus fast and convenient buses) have made a big inroad into car use in this city:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaArj_zjRtc
Last edited by tonyp on Sat Aug 19, 2017 8:31 am, edited 3 times in total.
tonyp
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by tonyp »

Fleet Lists wrote:Probably used on trips shorter that 10KM. Not really suitable for our environment.
No, they tend to be used over all services, but these examples have up to about 50 seats, which is little different from the seating capacity of a 3 door Sydney Volvo artic. So more doors don't necessarily mean they're less suitable for longer distance. It's the same argument as for trains. A double decker will provide more seats per unit but is less efficient at processing passengers, but if you can provide more units per hour on a more efficient single-deck service, you reduce the disparity in seating capacity.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by Liamena »

That report was a bit of a scam. "Patronage on some lines jumped by 20%". Wow, I thought. Which line ? The Olympic Park line.

Patronage growth on other lines was around a more plausible 10%
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by Liamena »

tonyp wrote: So how do the people who stand 90 minutes to and from Wollongong day after day fit into this picture? They don't seem to be going away. Perhaps they don't have a choice. One answer to that is to speed up journey times but Sydney/NSW Trains has demonstrated itself incapable of that. Only metro will deliver that. (It's normally the other way around in other parts of the world but this is NSW.)
So, you think a standing-room-only metro to Wollongong is the answer ?

You are going to have trouble increasing the public transport market share to the CBD from its already high levels. You aren't going to convince people with company cars to switch. You are unlikely to convince people who are not travelling alone to switch.

You are more likely to reduce overall congestion, by making it more practical for people who are not CBD workers to use public transport. This would be done by ensuring that new commercial development and employment-creating activities are located close to railway stations, and improving bus connections to workplaces.

Also, with the Opal statistics, how do they actually know which trains customers are using ? For example, if someone goes from Seven Hills to Parramatta, how do they know if they caught a T1 or Cumberland line train ? How do they know which train a person catches from Sydenham to Central ?
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by Liamena »

But Amsterdam, Prague and Plzen are all small cities.

And public transport use for commuting would still be mainly used by people heading to places, such as the central area, where the public transport goes to.

And the smaller city size, lower property prices and rental conditions probably make it a lot easier for people to live near their work or work near their home.\

I am sceptical of the NSW Government. Before the election, they had pictures of trains with seats like Melbourne trains. And then they go and buy trains that look like Chinese metro trains, except that they will be slower than chinese metro trains.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by tonyp »

Liamena wrote: So, you think a standing-room-only metro to Wollongong is the answer ?
Everybody is ignoring the point that, because a metro is more efficient, with closer headways and faster than the Sydney Trains operation, the number of seats per hour (total seating capacity) that the metro will deliver is not that far off the double deck operation. The seating argument in Sydney is a bogeyman.
Liamena wrote:But Amsterdam, Prague and Plzen are all small cities.

And public transport use for commuting would still be mainly used by people heading to places, such as the central area, where the public transport goes to.

And the smaller city size, lower property prices and rental conditions probably make it a lot easier for people to live near their work or work near their home.\

I am sceptical of the NSW Government. Before the election, they had pictures of trains with seats like Melbourne trains. And then they go and buy trains that look like Chinese metro trains, except that they will be slower than chinese metro trains.
Prague and Amsterdam have over 2 million people in their greater metropolitan areas and public transport commuting is all over the place because they're fairly polycentred and don't have a strong "CBD" in the sense of Australian cities. Housing in areas outside the old centres is increasingly looking like Australian cities, as are the many business/industrial parks etc. Old stereotypes about European cities die hard. Both of these cities have metro.

Average speed is more significant than maximum speed in a city commuter vehicle. I anticipate that the Sydney metro will deliver journey times similar to that of the Perth trains. I can't remember whether I've posted any of this comparison of 33 km segments in similar line conditions to ATDB before:

Perth:
Clarkson-Perth: 33 mins, 9 stops.
Kwinana- Perth: 28 mins, 6 stops.

Sydney:
Rouse Hill-Chatswood (Metro): 35 mins, 10 stops.

Blacktown-Redfern: 41 mins, 7 stops; 47 mins, 13 stops; IC 32 mins, 1 stop.
Cronulla-Redfern: 43 mins, 8 stops.
Hornsby-Central via Strathfield: IC 37 mins, 4 stops.
Macquarie Fields-Central via East Hills: 40 mins, 7 stops.

Sydney Trains services are typically around 10 minutes slower than either Transperth or the projected times for Sydney metro in relation to the number of stops. Even NSW Trains interurbans can't keep up unless they miss most stops. Metro will bring much better performance and capacity without a major loss of seats.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

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tonyp wrote: Everybody is ignoring the point that, because a metro is more efficient, with closer headways and faster than the Sydney Trains operation, the number of seats per hour (total seating capacity) that the metro will deliver is not that far off the double deck operation. The seating argument in Sydney is a bogeyman.
.
No we are not ignoring that point. But you have not been able to show any figures to support your argument.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

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tonyp wrote:Everybody is ignoring the point that, because a metro is more efficient, with closer headways and faster than the Sydney Trains operation, the number of seats per hour (total seating capacity) that the metro will deliver is not that far off the double deck operation
No.
The trains that will ply the new metro line will have about 378 seats

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/standing-will ... krmom.html
Last I checked, 378@15tph is very much less than 900@20tph.

I don't know what parallel universe you are referring to.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by Swift »

Australians crave frequency over numbers of seats per train, any old day.
They probably would rather stand on a train they know will turn up than wait a length of time for one that offers a seat to themselves.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by simonl »

^ Nah.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

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In reply to Swift.
What world are you living in? That would be true if frequency was doubled or better. But the increase from 15 per hour to 20 hour as mentioned above is not significant enough to overcome the inconvenience of a lot more people having to stand. Remember we are trying to attract ]people to public transport, not turn them away.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by tonyp »

Somebody has their figures tangled up. The metro starts off at 15 tph and a shortened train and has a maximum capacity of 30 tph with two more carriages added. Sydney Trains is more typically 4 trains per hour and can stretch to 12 but not on a sustained basis. The metro could run 30 tph 24 hours a day if necessary. We don't really know what Sydney Trains is capable of but its not much and it's slow.

The Paris RER is often cited to show what Sydney Trains could do and it's cited at 30 tph but in reality it's unable to sustain more than 25 tph and that's with 3 doors per side per car. Sydney Trains performance is obviously going to be somewhat below that.

The metro is going to have an ultimate capacity of 45,000 per hour, or 15,000 seats per hour. Someone might want to suggest the maximum realistic capacity possible from a Sydney Trains service - on a sustained basis over at least an hour, not in bursts.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by Swift »

Fleet Lists wrote:In reply to Swift.
What world are you living in? That would be true if frequency was doubled or better. But the increasecarte from 15 per hour to 20 hour as mentioned above is not significant enough to overcome the inconvenience of a lot more people having to stand. Remember we are trying to attract ]people to public transport, not turn them away.
Yeah, I meant saturation TUAG like London Underground. I was just emphasising how PT famished Aussies want a genuine world class public transport system that doesn't make then feel dependent on owning a car.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by Linto63 »

Are the stations going to be built to accommodate trains longer than the 6 car sets that will initiate the NW Metro? If not then any increase in length will require selected door opening, somewhat negating the benefits. Nothing I can find indicates that it is planned to lengthen the trains later on.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by Swift »

It will be interesting to see how much Hills residents use their "interurban metro" on weekends.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by tonyp »

Linto63 wrote:Are the stations going to be built to accommodate trains longer than the 6 car sets that will initiate the NW Metro? If not then any increase in length will require selected door opening, somewhat negating the benefits. Nothing I can find indicates that it is planned to lengthen the trains later on.
Eight car sets are planned to be used after completion to Bankstown.

So to conclude the above discussion, if Sydney Trains' comfortable minimum headway is 20 tph, then that's 18,000 seats per hour, around 20% advantage over metro seating capacity. That's not a lot in the scheme of things and only applies if Sydney Trains are running to those headways. As they're mostly not, whereas the metro is more likely to be running at close headways, the number of occasions that Sydney Trains is going to be having a seats per hour advantage over the metro is not likely to be all that great. I think overall seating capacity between the two will be much of a muchness, whereas in total capacity, metro will have it all over Sydney Trains at about 45,000 per hour compared to about 24,000 per hour. On top of that, the metro will deliver a significantly faster journey.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by mandonov »

Original plans also had the double deck line split three ways between the Upper Northern line, NWRL and PERL.

So it would have been a core of 20 TPH on a route under the harbour that would make a North Sydney and Barangaroo station pretty much impossible, with around 6 TPH on each branch.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Post by rogf24 »

A bored tunnel for double deckers under Sydney Harbour does seems to make it impossible for a Barangaroo station and a super deep North Sydney. But the government has said that use an immersed tunnel was feasible, so a double decker Second Harbour Crossing could have done that.
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