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Patronage predictions and panic

Sydney / New South Wales Transport Discussion

Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Postby rogf24 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:04 pm

Any linkies to the RER A discussion? tonyp, Glen? You mentioned earlier in another thread that the 25 tph problem was running for a couple of years before ATO. Has it changed after ATO, if they're still not getting 30 tph, then what are they getting with ATO now.

I found this which suggests RER has 26-27 tph scheduled now and the timetable didn't change for 25 years before 2016.
http://www.leparisien.fr/info-paris-ile ... 220008.php
Last edited by rogf24 on Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Postby Transtopic » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:32 pm

tonyp wrote:Frankly I don't give Sydney/NSW Trains an icebergs of achieving anything like that with two-door deckers that don't exchange or distribute passengers effectively. If they're achieving 20 tph that's as good as its going to get.

You're such a biased poster who continually misrepresents or ignores factual evidence that the existing Sydney legacy network could potentially be improved significantly if there were to be the political will to do so. I don't give a fig what you think. Don't blame the Rail administrators.

Although it's now academic, you still haven't acknowledged that a DD operation on a new line with ATO and modern station design could achieve greater than 20tph. You're a sham. And for Christ's sake, I'm sick of hearing about Perth. It doesn't have the anything like the same complexity or patronage of Sydney.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Postby rogf24 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:39 pm

I've also found this, which suggests that a schedule of 30 tph is possible with their equipment but there'll be more frequent cancellations when patronage grows. This one says that 27.5 tph is more "realistic". It's headline in Google Translate is "RER A: fewer trains for more punctuality".

https://www.lesechos.fr/29/04/2017/lese ... ualite.htm
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Postby tonyp » Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:04 am

rogf24 wrote:I've also found this, which suggests that a schedule of 30 tph is possible with their equipment but there'll be more frequent cancellations when patronage grows. This one says that 27.5 tph is more "realistic". It's headline in Google Translate is "RER A: fewer trains for more punctuality".

https://www.lesechos.fr/29/04/2017/lese ... ualite.htm

I'm embarrassed to say it, but I'm in Perth again at the moment and will have to wait till I get back to my desk before I can respond in detail (and maybe Glen will in the meantime), but we were talking to people through iirc the Lineoz forum and another French transport person I already know. Apparently they do achieve 30 tph in bursts but can't sustain it reliably. 25 is the more realistic achievement. The other practical factor that is overlooked is that the French are extremely experienced at operating this sort of fast, intense service and the NSW railways aren't. And that extra door per car makes a real big difference.

As to my "sham" comparisons, if anyone looks at them carefully, they're not make on sections of line where the Sydney trains get tangled up with each other in congestion, but when the trains are running free and easy in stretches of fairly straight line where there are generally no externalities that should impede performance. I like to think that I'm not as conniving as say TfNSW comparing running times of trams in a ROW with buses tangled in mixed traffic. I do try to ensure that all the parameters and externalities are similar.

So, that said, the NSW train operations are the slowest in Australia if you make allowance for Brisbane being stuck with legacy curvature throughout its system. I'm not convinced that interfering politicians telling them to slow down is the reason considering there have been several governments from both sides over the double deck era.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Postby moa999 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 11:55 am

I also suspect the French peak traffic is a little more spread out than Sydney, Paris having a less dense CBD, versus Sydney where peak numbers at Wynyard and Town Hall outweigh everything else.
You could handle two doors if say only 5-10% getting out at each station
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Postby Rails » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:46 pm

I think Tony is spot on and the emotional outbursts against him are just not needed. Don't play the man, play the ball. Transtopic (who posts on multiple forums with different names I believe) is an intelligent person with good knowledge of transport but is clearly prone to brain explosions if anyone dares disagree with his views on things. He is kind of like the Eco Rat/ Ricardo for the legacy/ Railcorp side. My opinion is truly in the middle. I certainly don't believe that RailCorp is some innocent here and its just 40 years of evil political devils causing all the issues. The problem is a mix of both IMO.

I also don't believe we would see a Second Harbour Rail Crossing running existing Double Decker (DD) sets more than 24 TPH or servicing stations at Barangaroo or possibly even Victoria Cross (the first northern stop may have had to be Crows Nest or St Leonards as some of the documentation alluded too). I think should there only be DD trains running through the CBD/ across the harbour even with new stations it would have even struggled with 24 TPH due to these trains limited doors/ stair space and thus long dwell times. This section is best run by Single Deck trains like we are getting. However. I believe having the Metro path to do the heavy lifting that it does allow the DD to be taken up to 24 TPH via the existing path. Win/ win in my book. That's without even touching the cost savings of automated Metro that allows for more transport to be built.

Nowadays I kind of stay out of these arguments because I think they are pointless (especially those surrounding the NWRL! Its done guys). In my view, we are getting a sensible solution with the ability to be exactly what our city needs, starting with one North South and one East West Metro trunk through the Sydney CBD. IMO, the sections that must be high capacity, automated Metro are Epping via Macquarie Park to the CBD and onto Sydenham and Parramatta to the CBD. I believe that if you extend the new line from Parramatta to Blacktown and from the CBD to Revesby via the Airport you will have the basis of an excellent Metro network that covers the GEC paths and delivers the backbone that is needed. Big tick!

I don't believe the ECRL should have been built as a DD service. It should be Metro so the conversion does not concern me. Same with the Airport line. From here I am a little less passionate about what has or should happen. The Metro did not have to go to Rouse Hill after Epping to be successful. However so many of the arguments against this extension do not hold up, it can easily work really well as a SD service despite the distance and I think it will be a success. From where we are now, it just makes sense that it was SD. So that is no concern to me. It was a risk though, should the second harbour rail crossing never been built...

Metro Bankstown however... I am still not sure about this one. While it works on some levels, will provide an excellent service to the stations on its route and certainly helps relieve the DD network I do not like that it cuts the Bankstown line in half. While the legacy part of the line is not exactly booming with passengers even from a cost POV I think it doesn't work like it should. I cant help but wonder if it may not have been better to send it to Hurstville instead. However it was clear that their original plan was to send the Bankstown line to Liverpool via a new path, that did work for passengers and for relieving the existing network but is now off the table it seems and so we are left with a poor hybrid.

Personally I don't support all lines being Metro or all lines being DD, I think the 3 tier network we are getting is best. I also don't agree that all CBD lines must be Metro either, I think its fine for some lines to terminate at ST/ Central for transfer to Metro but also for some DD lines to run through the CBD. I could see a future where the Hurstville locals/ ESR is extended East as a Metro or the City Circle is converted to Metro running from Parramatta to Hurstville. Or a new DD express line/ tunnel from Parramatta to the CBD and around to join the locals to Campbelltown. Both work. People are so rigid in their beliefs, there are multiple ways achieve what is needed, its a shame so many have a barrow to push and we cant get support for stuff that is actually happening now after decades of next to nothing.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Postby Fleet Lists » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:14 pm

One person who certainly agrees with Tony P but that opinion is certainly far from unanimous.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Postby tonyp » Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:50 pm

Like Rails I don't actually advocate wholesale replacement of suburban lines with metro. Metro has a few very specific applications, that's all. My beef is that Sydney/NSW train services are so slow. They need to be brought up to a performance par with metro, whatever it takes to do that.

I'm relaxed with Transtopic, he's just defending what he believes! If I wanted to be flagellated I'd float these views on Railpage where all the Sydney Trains employees lurk and get a serve of how grateful I should be for what they already provide, do I know how hard and complex it is to provide a rail service etc etc! :lol:
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Postby Transtopic » Tue Aug 22, 2017 7:02 pm

tonyp wrote:Like Rails I don't actually advocate wholesale replacement of suburban lines with metro. Metro has a few very specific applications, that's all. My beef is that Sydney/NSW train services are so slow. They need to be brought up to a performance par with metro, whatever it takes to do that.

On that score, I actually agree with you tonyp. Sorry if I was a bit over the top. I have been deservedly chastened.
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Postby tonyp » Tue Aug 22, 2017 7:12 pm

Transtopic wrote:On that score, I actually agree with you tonyp. Sorry if I was a bit over the top. I have been deservedly chastened.

Its cool, honest! I can be irritating. :roll:
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Re: Patronage predictions and panic

Postby Roderick Smith » Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:08 pm

I started this thread, but many of my later posts have been lost, and so many of the posts from others have been wrong.

On designed specifications, a 160 m train takes 20 s to brake into a platform, and 20 s to accelerate clear. With speed-proving approach signalling (done at Circular Quay in 1955 with track circuits and train stops), that allows 110 s dwell time on 150 s headways (24 tph), and 80 s dwell time on 120 s headways (30 tph). I have never found any Sydney train needing more than 70 s for passenger needs: all overstaying is to meet panic padding. Likewise, Sydney trains don't perform to design specs, they are driven and braked sluggishly.
24 tph is not only completely achievable with double deck, it provides useful subdivisions to multiple destinations at 6 tph. Double-deck on 24 tph carries more passengers per hour per track than single-deck at 30 tph.

Single-deck real metros get their capacity from lack of seating, and do not serve tidal-flow cities. They serve places with frequent boarding/alighting, so nobody has to stand for the full length of the line.

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